Closing Wrap – Thursday, December 5, 2019

In European Equity Markets the pan-European Stoxx 600 closed flat. Retail and construction stocks were among the top-performing sectors. Luxury stocks grabbed the headlines outperformed on reports that Kering is considering buying the Italian brand Moncler. Shares of the latter rose 6.9%. In the corporate world, Ryanair cut its passenger traffic forecast on Wednesday and Daily Mail & General Trust reported a decline in pre-tax profit for its fiscal 2019 year. On the data front, German industry orders fell 0.4% in October. The eurozone grew at a pace of 0.2% in the third quarter of the year, unchanged from the previous quarter.

In Currency Markets sterling hit 2-1/2-year highs versus the euro on Thursday, on growing confidence that next week’s election will give the Conservative Party the parliamentary majority it needs to deliver Brexit, ending near-term uncertainty. Recent opinion polls suggest the ruling Conservatives will win an outright majority in the Dec. 12 election, removing some of the political uncertainty that has weighed on the currency for the last 3-1/2 years. Sterling was last up 0.2% against the euro at 84.39 pence, but earlier in the day it touched 84.31 pence, its strongest since May 2017. It has gained almost 10% from lows hit in August versus the common currency.

In Commodities Markets, oil prices rose on Thursday on expectations OPEC and allied oil producers will deepen output cuts in an effort to prop up prices and prevent a glut next year. A ministerial panel of key OPEC members and other major producers led by Russia recommended increasing output cuts by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2020, according to Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak. Brent crude futures were up 55 cents, or 0.87%, to $63.55 a barrel Brent jumped 3.6% on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 27 cents to $58.70 a barrel, their highest since late September.

In US Equity Markets indices fell on Thursday, as investors stayed away from making riskier bets owing to a lack of new developments in U.S.-China trade talks. The three main stock indexes opened higher, extending gains from the previous session, but lost steam in the first hour of trading. The S&P 500 rose 0.18%, at 3,107.31 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19%, at 8,550.81. Dollar General Corp gained 1% after the discount store chain raised its full-year profit forecast. Nike Inc shares climbed 1.5% after a report said Goldman Sachs upgraded the sportswear maker’s stock to “buy” from “neutral”.

In Bond Markets Eurozone government bond yields rose for a second consecutive day, tracking firmer U.S. Treasury yields as investors awaited the next signal from China-U.S. trade negotiations amid mixed messages on the state of talks. Yields rose on Wednesday on renewed hopes of a deal between the two nations, but that followed sharp falls earlier this week. German 10-year bond yields rose slightly more than 2 basis points to -0.2930 percent. Other core government bond yields also moved between 1 and 2 bps. French and Spanish yields rose 2 basis points, with the two countries expected to raise between 7 and 9 billion euros combined on Thursday.

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Update from Institute Portfolio Management 22 April 2019