Opening Wrap – Monday, July 15, 2019

In Asian Equity Markets Chinese stocks recovered from an earlier slip to rise by the afternoon on Monday, following the release of GDP data that showed the Chinese economy growing at its slowest pace in at least 27 years. The Shanghai composite added 0.76%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 0.22%. Over in Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.43% as most sectors slipped. South Korea’s Kospi traded fractionally lower in the afternoon.

In Currency Markets the U.S. dollar stayed on the defensive on Monday, pinned down by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. The dollar hovered around 107.80 yen, bound between support around 106.80 and resistance at 108.98. Monday is a national holiday in Japan and dollar-yen trading volumes were very thin. The euro trod water against the dollar at $1.1270, in the middle of a two-cent range where the currency has remained since June.

In Commodities Markets oil prices fell on Monday after China posted its slowest quarterly economic growth in at least 27 years, reinforcing concerns about demand in the world’s largest crude oil importer. Brent crude futures for September fell 21 cents to $66.51 a barrel while U.S. crude for August was down 28 cents at $59.93 a barrel. Both contracts last week posted their biggest weekly gains in three weeks on cuts in U.S. oil production and diplomatic tensions in the Middle East.

In US Equity Markets stocks hit record highs on Friday as high expectations for an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve continued to propel shares while investors awaited next week’s kickoff of the corporate earnings season. The S&P 500 gained 0.33%, to 3,009.9 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.49%, to 8,236.09. Ford Motor Co shares gained 2.65% after the automaker and Volkswagen AG said they would join forces to develop autonomous and electric cars.

In Bond Markets the U.S. yield curve was slightly steeper on Friday, with yields largely unmoved by stronger-than-expected producer price data as market expectations of an interest rate cut this month held firm. The two-year Treasury note yield, which reflects market sentiment about changes in interest rate policy, was down about a basis point to 1.84%. The benchmark 10-year note yield fell less than the 2-year, down half a basis point to 2.11%.

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Update from Institute Portfolio Management 22 April 2019